Jornal de Ciências da Terra e Mudanças Climáticas

Abstrato

Assessing Hydrological Response to Changing Climate in the Krishna Basin of India

Kulkarni BD, Deshpande NR, Patwardhan SK and Bansod SD

Impact of climate change on water balance components in the Krishna river basin are investigated using a semidistributed hydrological model namely Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is calibrated and validated using the measured stream flow and meteorological data for the period (1970-1990) at a single guage outlet. The model has been used further for hydrologic parameter simulations. Daily climate simulations from regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is used as input for running SWAT and monthly hydrologic parameters such as precipitation, surface flow, water yield, Evapotranspiration (ET) and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) are generated under the assumption of no change in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) pattern over time. Simulations at 23 sub-basins of the Krishna basin have been obtained for the control runs (1961-1990) and the for two time slices of future scenarios (2011-2040) and (2041-2070). Model projections indicate increase in the annual discharge, surface runoff and base flow in the basin in mid-century.