Jornal de doenças infecciosas e terapia

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Assessing the Lockdown Effect from Excess Mortalities

Alexej Weber

Background and Aims: The reported case numbers of COVID-19 are often used to estimate the reproduction number or the growth rate. We use the excess mortality instead, showing the difference between most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (mrNPIs) and less restrictive NPIs (lrNPIs) with respect to the growth rate and death counts.

Methods: We estimate the COVID-19 growth rate for Sweden, South Korea, Italy and Germany from the excess mortality. We use the average growth rate obtained for Sweden and South Korea, two countries with lrNPIs, to estimate additional death numbers in Germany and Italy (two representative countries with mrNPIs) in a hypothetic lrNPIs scenario.

Results: The growth rate estimated from excess mortality decreased faster for Germany and Italy than for Sweden and South Korea, suggesting that the mrNPIs have a non-negligible effect. This is not visible when the growth rate is calculated using the reported case numbers of COVID-19. This results in approximately 4 500 and 12 000 more death numbers for Germany and Italy, respectively.

Conclusion: The conclusion for the spreading of COVID-19 obtained from reported COVID-19 cases in previous studies are most likely biased. Expanding testing capacity led to an overestimation of the growth rate, masking the true decrease only visible when analyzing the excess mortality. Using our method, a more realistic estimate of the growth rate is obtained. Conclusions made for the reproduction number derived from the reported case numbers like the insignificance of most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (lockdowns) might be wrong and have to be reevaluated using the growth rates obtained with our method.