Jornal de Ciências da Terra e Mudanças Climáticas

Abstrato

Assessment of the Reliability of World Weather Online Forecasts for Kadoma Community

Terence DM, Emmanuel M, Tichaona Z,Nation M

In recent times weather related catastrophes have become a commonplace. Many weather forecasters have taken the lead in furnishing individuals, corporate and governments with information. Consequently, little has been done to verify the accuracy of the weather reports and forecasts. This study therefore, compared and assessed the accuracy of forecasts given by World Weather Online with those of Meteorological Services Department for the case of Kadoma in Zimbabwe. The study also investigated the extent to which people benefit from using weather information as well as the challenges faced in accessing this information. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were used to gather data. Internet data mining, questionnaire and interview were used. Temperature and rainfall data were statistically analyzed while benefits and challenges were qualitatively assessed. The WWO forecasts for minimum temperatures had an accuracy of 96% while those for maximum temperature had an accuracy of 91.4% (percentage error of 8.6%). Rainfall forecasts showed a percentage correct of 60% and 56.7% for MSD and 70% and 66.7% for WWO for one day and twoday lead times, respectively. The researcher therefore recommended that the MSD defragment its regions into smaller areas to increase accuracy of forecasts. Awareness campaigns by all stakeholders were also seen as necessary in fostering understanding of weather reports and forecasts by the all people.